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Glasgow Local weather Pact outcomes: ambition, however too gradual to forestall catastrophic local weather impacts

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There will probably be those that condemn the Glasgow COP a failure, and others that hail it successful. 

On a gathering stage the place 197 international locations + Europe have to agree on outcomes based mostly upon utilizing a consensus course of, it’s someplace in between.

The choice textual content incorporates the science and the urgency, however then fails to step up with the requisite actions to match the science.  

The science says we’re nonetheless inflicting an excessive amount of greenhouse gases into the ambiance, heading for round 2.4 levels Celsius International warming by the top of the century in line with Local weather Motion Tracker evaluation launched 9 November: Glasgow’s 2030 credibility gap.  Many international locations targets (comparable to Australia) are nonetheless removed from enough.

And the science as supplied within the IPCC 6th Assessment report has solely acquired clearer that passing 1.5 levels poses monumental dangers to life and well being, biodiversity, and passing tipping factors within the local weather system making reversing international heating harder. The UN Secretary Common referred to as it a Code Purple for Humanity.

We’re dropping the race towards time to convey emissions below management. The Paris climate target of 1.5C is nearly out of our attain.

The COP determination remains to be important together with choices on coal exit and ratchett up measures within the subsequent 12 months. Two necessary take aways:

Can it present a platform for larger motion at COP27 assembly in North Africa within the Egyptian Purple Sea resort metropolis of Sharm El-Sheikh?

This UN Local weather Change convention  the world moved to take stronger motion on local weather change, and Australia is being left behind, with dire penalties for our local weather, financial system and jobs.  

Whereas the world was standing up on local weather motion, Australia is strolling backwards, with Scott Morrison’s Authorities additional entrenching fossil fuels. 

140 international locations together with China and India lifted their ambition. Australia was among the many solely developed nations NOT to convey an elevated 2030 goal; the stress is on to take action earlier than subsequent 12 months’s COP. 

 

The final rights got to coal within the COP platform and within the COP remaining determination, and the Morrison authorities has left Australia ill-prepared for the worldwide zero emissions transformation that’s properly underway.

The most important public funders of abroad coal vegetation – China, Korea and Japan – agreed to finish public funding for abroad coal subsequent 12 months. A rising variety of the world’s banks additionally agreed to cease funding new coal vegetation.

Our coal employees and coal communities haven’t been informed the reality and have been not invited to take part in regional transition plans. 

On a regular basis Australians and enterprise can pay a excessive value for us being out of step with the remainder of the world. 

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms, or border tariffs, will probably be utilized to Australian manufactured and agricultural export items as a result of we’re seen as not having taken the steps to decarbonise our financial system. It will have dire financial penalties because of federal authorities  prioritising fossil fuels over local weather motion.

Prospects and financers are already abandoning coal as a result of they know it should collapse over the subsequent decade. As an alternative of serving to coal communities diversify, the Australian Authorities is doubling down on a dropping wager by increasing coal and fuel with over 70 new coal mines and 44 fuel initiatives within the improvement pipeline.

Australia is turning into globally remoted and is one in every of a handful of nations like Brazil, Russia and Saudi Arabia which can be seen as a part of the issue, not the answer. 

Australia’s web zero goal is incompatible with any new coal or fuel. 

All new fossil gasoline enlargement should cease, and we have to section out their use as rapidly as potential.

The stress on the Morrison authorities to step up, not cop out, stays and must develop stronger. (Nations informed to convey up to date 2030 targets earlier than the subsequent COP, in step with 45% international cuts by 2030, and entrance finish web zero plans)

The Morrison authorities is sitting again and freeriding on the efforts of state and native governments, companies and households which can be getting on with the job by ramping up renewable vitality and investing in low carbon applied sciences. That is why Federal Authorities is saying emissions discount is projected to be 35 % by 2030, due to the actions of states, companies and the broader group. Think about in the event that they had been truly pro-active on local weather coverage and setting a regulatory atmosphere and incentives.

There isn’t a substitute for federal insurance policies and motion. The Australian authorities is risking trillions of funding {dollars} that can safe the roles of the longer term. 

Whereas criticism of the Federal Authorities must be made, the Labor Opposition must equally step up and set an ambituous 2030 goal, no new coal or fuel initiatives, and develop simply transition plans for coal, oil and fuel sector to cut back fossil gasoline manufacturing, together with ramping up renewables and vitality storage.

Response to the outcomes

Local weather Council

The Local weather Council issued a media launch highlighting that For the primary time in 26 years of COP summits, there’s a particular name to maneuver past coal energy and section out fossil gasoline subsidies.

Local weather Council Head of Analysis Dr Simon Bradshaw stated 140 international locations lifted their sport on local weather motion at COP26, whereas Australia cemented its status as a laggard and blocker. 

“The federal authorities confirmed up empty-handed to a pivotal second within the combat for our future. They’ve let down our Pacific neighbours, in addition to Australians who don’t need to endure extra frequent and extreme bushfires, floods, droughts and heatwaves,” Dr Bradshaw stated. 

“As our allies and buying and selling companions rise to the local weather problem, we’re caught in a polluting previous with a handful of nations together with Russia and Saudi Arabia. The Authorities’s personal Web Zero modelling, launched two days in the past, predicts Australia will nonetheless be a significant coal and fuel exporter in 2050. 

“The Glasgow Local weather Pact has made it very clear that our authorities should come again to the desk subsequent 12 months with a stronger 2030 goal. It’s time to slash carbon air pollution this decade, as if our futures relied on it – as a result of they do.”

Local weather Council CEO Amanda McKenzie talked concerning the diminishing of Australia’s status at Glasgow in failing to place ahead a significant 2030 emissions discount goal. 

Updating a brand new NDC with new targets at this 5 12 months interval was a key plank of the Paris Settlement, the ratchet mechanism, which the Turnbull authorities signed on to. Australia broke its promise to the worldwide group.

“All Australians can pay the worth. We’re the sunniest nation on this planet however we’re lacking alternatives within the clear vitality race. We’re feeling the worsening penalties of local weather change.

“Australians all around the nation are doing their finest and can rightly be upset. They’re rolling up their sleeves to do extra on local weather, however the Morrison authorities is all speak no motion. It’s downright reckless.” stated Amanda McKenzie.

Australia Institute

The Australia Institute Director of Power and Local weather Richie Merzian who attended COP26 additionally commented on the convention outcomes:

“If COP26 is judged on its capacity to advance emissions reductions, then Glasgow has already moved the dial ahead,” 

“Makes an attempt to call and disgrace fossil fuels have been blocked for main fossil gasoline producers within the UN, however lastly a line has been drawn within the sand.

“After 15 years within the course of, it’s heartening to see fossil fuels immediately focused, with important alliances towards coal, oil and fuel launched on the margins of COP, language on phasing down conventional coal energy agreed, together with by Australia.

“Put up-Glasgow, we will rid ourselves of the pretence that fossil fuels may be a part of the answer to the local weather disaster.

“Australia earned the Colossal Fossil award for coming to COP26 with as little ambition as potential. It was disappointing to see a sophisticated financial system refuse to extend its 2030 ambition, particularly when Prime Minister Morrison traveled all the way in which to Glasgow to brag that Australia would considerably ‘meet and beat’ its modest goal with no extra insurance policies.

“Whereas the emissions hole to maintain international warming to 1.5 levels stays, it has at the very least narrowed and international locations like Australia have been requested to return subsequent 12 months with a greater goal and to affix a brand new Ministerial roundtable on 2030 ambition.

“Credit score needs to be given to the UK and the US for throwing all the pieces they’d at COP26, together with bringing Australia to the desk to assist a phase-out of unabated coal and to contemplate enhancing its 2030 goal subsequent 12 months.

“Nevertheless, the ultimate bundle falls wanting the ambitions of the Pacific. As has been stated by many: if we save the Pacific, we save the world. Whereas progress has been made and hope stays, the method should decide up the tempo subsequent 12 months in Egypt if we as a planet are to keep away from harmful local weather change.”

Remark by Marshall Islands on the COP26 Closing Plenary:


See: Final COP26 stocktake and Closing Plenary

“On behalf of the Marshall Islands I want to learn into the report our profound disappointment with the change within the language on coal from section out to section down. I ask that this be mirrored within the report of this assembly. This dedication on coal had been a vibrant spot on this bundle. It was one of many issues we had been hoping to hold out of right here, again dwelling with delight, and it hurts deeply to see that vibrant spot dim. We settle for this variation with the best reluctance. We achieve this solely, and I actually wish to stress solely, as a result of there are crucial components of this bundle that individuals in my nation want, as a lifeline for his or her future. Thankyou.”

In a tweet thread Tina Stege, the Envoy for the Republic of the Marshall Islands articulated what was received:

“This Package deal will not be excellent. The coal change and a weak final result on loss and injury are blows.”

“However it’s actual progress and components of the Glasgow Package deal are a lifeline for my nation. We should not low cost the essential wins coated on this bundle:

  • Throughout the @HACoalition  we campaigned laborious from daybreak to nightfall to safe a doubling of adaptation financing. When the HAC launched this name we didn’t know if it will be potential. It was a really hard-fought win. 
  • This bundle features a plan to speed up NDCs (nationwide local weather targets) to fulfill the calls for we should meet this decade – additionally referred to as for by the @HACoalition , and a precedence that did not at all times appear potential.
  • On #Article6, we have to stay vigilant towards greenwashing, shield environmental integrity, & shield human rights & the rights of indigenous peoples.
  • However a plan is simply nearly as good as its implementation. All Events should now go dwelling and get to work to ship on their Glasgow and Paris commitments. #COP26 #1pt5tostayalive “

Australian Conservation Basis

 

“Australia has as soon as once more been a part of the issue, not the answer,” ACF Local weather Program Supervisor

Gavan McFadzean from the Australian Conservation Basis who attended COP26 in Glasgow highlighted that Australia was as soon as once more a part of the issue not the answer, together with international locations like Russia and Saudi Arabia. 

“The hole between Australia and a few of its closest allies and buying and selling companions – just like the US, UK and the EU – has widened and it’ll lead to dire penalties for our local weather, financial system and jobs.

“Australia is without doubt one of the sunniest and windiest locations on earth, we’re lacking a golden alternative to turn out to be a world renewables superpower. We needs to be main from the entrance, not lagging from the very again,” he stated.

He highlighted that there have been breakthroughs at Glasgow, though they weren’t sufficient to shut the emissions hole to the 1.5C Paris Settlement temperature goal

  • 140 international locations lifted 2030 air pollution discount targets, however not Australia
  • 103 international locations agreed to slash methane air pollution, however not Australia
  • 190 international locations and organisations agreed to section out coal energy and finish public funding, however not Australia

“The stress is now on our elected representatives in Canberra to replace its local weather coverage to convey us up to the mark with key buying and selling companions,” Mr McFadzean stated. 

“A majority of world leaders, and importantly a majority of Australians, wish to see emissions halved on the very least by 2030. This may be achieved simply by electrifying trade and bolstering renewable energy.

“This convention is the nail within the coffin for coal. The world is shifting on – Australia ought to too.”

“Momentum is constructing, our eyes now flip to each of the main events within the lead as much as the Federal election to introduce the motion wanted to safeguard our local weather and nature.” concluded McFadzean.

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